Hawai‘i faces an undeniable and accelerating threat from climate change. Sea level rise, tropical cyclone intensification, prolonged droughts, “rain bombs,” and marine heat waves are no longer distant possibilities — they are realities reshaping our islands.

Yet, some still dismiss the integration of sea level rise into government policies and regulations as merely an “environmental issue.” This perspective is not only misguided but dangerous. Sea level rise is a science issue — and public policies must be grounded in science if Hawai‘i is to protect its people, economy, and future.

The new report from the Congressional Budget Office issues an unequivocal warning: despite global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the trajectory of climate change remains deeply troubling.

Data from over 200 peer-reviewed studies reveal that atmospheric CO2 concentrations will continue to rise through the end of this century, even if emissions begin to decline in the coming decades.

This relentless increase in carbon pollution drives an alarming median global temperature rise of 2.9 degrees Celsius — well beyond the thresholds of safety identified by climate scientists.

The implications are stark. A 2.9 degrees Celsius rise means more extreme weather events, intensified droughts, rising seas flooding coastal cities, and ecosystems pushed to their breaking points. These projections underscore an urgent truth: while progress is being made, it is far from sufficient.

The gap between policy commitments and the scale of action required is widening, and the cost of delay is mounting. This is not a distant crisis — it is a clear and present danger demanding bold, immediate action to align global policies with the unyielding realities of science.

For Hawai‘i, these changes manifest in unique ways — eroding coastlines, chronic flooding, stressed freshwater supplies, intensified tropical cyclones, deepening drought, and threats to marine ecosystems that sustain our economy and cultural heritage.

‘The Science Is Clear’

Ignoring these threats is not an option. The science is clear: sea levels will continue to rise, and the rate of that rise is increasing. According to projections, Hawai‘i could see nearly 1 foot of sea level rise by 2050 and over 3 feet by the end of the century.

At just 3.2 feet, an estimated 25,800 acres of coastal land — including critical infrastructure, homes, and cultural sites — will be chronically flooded. Add to this the escalating risks of more frequent and severe storms, and the stakes become uncomfortably high.

Government policies that incorporate sea level rise are not about appeasing environmentalists; they are about safeguarding lives and livelihoods. These policies, grounded in robust scientific research, aim to make communities more resilient by addressing vulnerabilities before they escalate into disasters.

Resisting these measures because they are inconvenient, disruptive, or costly is shortsighted. The cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of proactive adaptation.

Consider the alternatives. Without policies that plan for and mitigate the impacts of sea level rise, Hawai‘i risks becoming uninsurable and unaffordable. Insurers are already retreating from areas with high exposure to climate risks, and mortgage lenders are raising red flags about long-term financial viability.

Communities that fail to adapt will face plummeting property values, disinvestment, and an exodus of residents and businesses. These are not abstract scenarios; they are unfolding in vulnerable coastal regions worldwide.

Opponents of climate-informed policies often frame them as unnecessary overreach, but this argument ignores the evidence. Science-driven policies — such as updating building codes to account for sea level rise, prohibiting new construction in high-risk flood zones, and investing in resilient infrastructure — are proven tools for reducing risks.

These measures can save lives, protect property, and preserve critical infrastructure. They also create opportunities for innovation, such as the development of climate-resilient designs and renewable energy systems, which can strengthen Hawai‘i’s economy and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Addressing sea level rise is not just a matter of engineering and infrastructure; it is also about equity. Low-income communities and Native Hawaiian populations are disproportionately vulnerable to climate impacts.

These communities often lack the resources to adapt, leaving them exposed to the harshest consequences of inaction. Science-based policies can help ensure that the benefits of adaptation — such as safer housing, reliable water supplies, and sustainable food systems — are distributed equitably, rather than exacerbating existing inequalities.

The path forward will not be easy. Adapting to sea level rise and other climate impacts requires difficult decisions: where to build, where to retreat, and how to allocate limited resources. These choices will challenge the status quo and demand collaboration across government agencies, private sectors, and communities. Yet, the alternative — ignoring the science and maintaining business as usual — is far worse.

Hawai‘i has always been a place of resilience and innovation, drawing strength from its cultural heritage and natural environment. Embracing science-based policies to address sea level rise is a continuation of this legacy. It is a commitment to protect not just our shores and infrastructure, but also the people, ecosystems, and cultural practices that define who we are.

To those who resist these policies, let us be clear: this is not about convenience; it is about safety and economy. The threats are real, the science is irrefutable, and the time to act is now.

By aligning our policies with scientific realities, Hawai‘i can lead the way in climate resilience, setting an example for other coastal regions facing similar challenges. Together, we can ensure that our islands remain a thriving home for generations to come.